Malmbjerg NPV Ladder

Below US$22.50/lb the model rides the 43-101 sensitivity table itself, which runs from US$13.50 to US$22.50 in 5% steps (US$323M up to US$1,921M). The eleven published points imply a step of US$177.6M per US$1/lb, remarkably straight across the whole range — the individual steps only wander between 173 and 181.

Above US$22.50/lb the study stops and the model extrapolates from its top point at a deliberately reduced US$160M per US$1/lb. That haircut off the in-study slope is the conservative choice, and it's the reason these figures sit below a naive straight-line projection — at US$34/lb it gives US$3,761M where extending the study's own 177.6 slope would claim about US$4,965M.

Dilution is expressed as a share of the post-raise count, not as a multiplier on today's. So 25% dilution means new equity is a quarter of the final register: 150 ÷ (1 − 0.25) = 200M shares. 40% gives 250M. That's the convention your sensitivity table uses, and it's the stricter reading — 25% "dilution" in the looser sense would only get you to 187.5M.

The 3% NSR is applied as a 6% cut to NPV. That's an approximation, but a good one: against the royalty-adjusted per-share figures it lands within C$5M at US$26, US$30 and US$36/lb alike. A royalty scales with revenue while NPV scales with price at a similar rate, so a flat percentage tracks it well over this range.

Cross-check. Set dilution to 25%, USD/CAD to 1.3800 and leave the NSR off: the 1.0× column reproduces the source spreadsheet exactly — C$17.1 at US$26, C$21.5 at US$30, C$28.2 at US$36.

• Trades at — MOLY.TO's price divided by the full-NPV value per share in that row. A row reading 0.04× says the market is paying four cents for a dollar of modelled project value at that molybdenum price.
• Upside — how far MOLY.TO would have to move to reach that row's value at the multiple you've selected, as a percentage of today's price. The chips above the table switch all of it between 0.5×, 0.7× and 1.0× NPV, because "upside" is meaningless without saying upside to what. Expect large numbers; a developer trading at a few cents on the modelled dollar produces four-figure percentages, which says as much about the market's risk discount as about the asset.
• Your position — appears once you enter a share count. It's your shares × that row's per-share value at the selected multiple. Watch what the dilution slider does to it: your share count is fixed while the denominator grows, so moving 0% → 50% halves every figure in the column. You keep your shares and own less of the project.
• Rows marked FS sit inside the study's own sensitivity range and don't rely on extrapolation at all.

• Molybdenum — LME Molybdenum (Platts), month-2 close, day-delayed. This is the only molybdenum source: no second provider is substituted if it fails, because a spot oxide assessment sits several dollars away from the LME curve and quietly swapping one for the other corrupts the NPV. The LME settles once a day, so the value is cached for an hour and a refresh usually returns the same figure. If the fetch fails the tile turns red and holds the last good LME number until you overwrite it.
• MOLY.TO — Yahoo Finance, delayed. Also trades as MOLY on Cboe Canada, M0LY in Frankfurt, GRLRF on OTCQB.
• Newsflow — Google News RSS, two standing searches: one for the company and Malmbjerg, one for the metal. Refreshed every half hour. It is an unfiltered headline feed, not a curated one — small-cap miners attract promotional "stock alert" sites alongside real coverage, so check the publisher before you believe a headline. Company filings on SEDAR+ are the authoritative record.
• USD/CAD — Frankfurter (ECB daily reference), with open.er-api as backup.

Browser security rules force the two scraped sources through public proxies, which are free and therefore flaky. A red dot means the fetch failed and you're seeing the last good number — typing over any tile overrides the feed until you clear it.

• Capex US$1,000M and 70/30 debt-equity — management, August 2026 call: the feasibility figure of US$820M moved to roughly US$1bn once lenders reworked it, funded 70% debt and 30% equity. The deck lists US$700M from three AAA-rated EU banks plus EDC at US$275M.
• 25–35% of NPV — management's own stated expectation for where a project like this trades once it is close to construction with a data room open and equity coming together. It is an expectation from an interested party, not a valuation opinion, and it is the single largest driver of every number in this table.
• Lenders' NPV near US$2bn — management's description of the due diligence reports. For reference, the model's own curve at the US$28 cap sits above that; at the feasibility study's top sensitivity of US$22.50/lb it lands at US$1.92bn, which is roughly the same figure.
• Non-dilutive equity — the €50M Horizon Europe / EIC application has passed two of three stages and awaits a final decision; a royalty and strategic investment from a steel company and the German raw materials fund were all described as in progress, none as closed. The default of US$100M assumes some but not all of this lands. Set it to zero to see the fully dilutive case.
• Construction and production bands — conventional developer-to-producer re-rating ranges, not company guidance and not from the call. Treat them as illustrative.

The circularity worth understanding. The issue price sets how many shares get created, which sets the per-share value at every later stage. But the raise itself is likelier to happen after a re-rating, not before, so a low issue price and a high target are somewhat contradictory assumptions. Move the issue price around and watch the targets move — that sensitivity is the honest centre of this whole page.